A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
